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13 декабря 2018 г. 06:44

predictions against the point spread Use this as your open thread for

Week 3 picks Authentic Rhett Ellison Jersey , predictions against the point spread Use this as your open thread for today’s non-Giants games.Well, last week was not good. But we’re ready to bounce back. Lines make a little more sense after two weeks of play rather than one, so let’s see if we can use that information to make a quick turnaround.Remember these picks are strictly for fun and entertainment purposes and please for your sake do not take these picks as gambling advice. Lines used here come from the Westgate Las Vegas via OddsShark. Home team in CAPS.Jets (+3) over CLEVELANDThe Jets and Browns are probably pretty close (they’re 25th and 27th by Football Outsiders’ DAVE, which still includes preseason projections). Both sides look to have the advantage on defense (Browns sixth in defensive DVOA vs Jets 25th offense and Jets second-ranked defense vs Cleveland’s 30th-ranked offense). Coaching could have a big impact here and that advantage 鈥?goes to the Jets? Like, pretty easily, right? What a world.NOTE: Well, Baker Mayfield and the Browns had other ideas here.MINNESOTA (-17) over BuffaloStealing from last week: there’s a point where the line would be so high I’d seriously consider the Bills. Seventeen points ain’t it. Buffalo’s offensive line and skill players against the Minnesota defense? I’d need at least three touchdowns to think about it.HOUSTON (-6) over GiantsBoth of these teams are 0-2, but they’re very different 0-2’s. Houston should at least be 1-1, possibly 2-0. They’re still 11th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA. The Giants, meanwhile, should absolutely be an 0-2 team and it would be hard to spot them less than a touchdown on the road.[FanPulse: Each week we survey 100+ fans at each of our 32 SB Nation NFL communities. This week, Giants fans here at Big Blue View predicted a 6-point Texans win while our Texans site, Battle Red Blog, predicted a 1-point Texans win. Find more results here]KANSAS CITY (-6.5) over San FranciscoThere’s going to be a point when Patrick Mahomes stops throwing touchdowns at will, but I’m not sure that’s going to be this week against a 49ers defense that ranks 21st in yards allowed per drive through two weeks. San Francisco only stays close in this game if the offense can take advantage of Kansas City’s league-worst defense, but the offense has been off to a slow start.New Orleans (+3) over ATLANTAAtlanta’s defensive losses were felt a little against the Carolina Panthers — Christian McCaffrey had 14 receptions for 102 yards — and they’re probably be felt even more against the Saints. I wouldn’t be surprised if this game is pretty high scoring — New Orleans’s defense has cratered back to 25th in DVOA — so I’m going to ride with the better offense.Green Bay (-3) over WASHINGTONWashington might be one of the weirdest teams to figure out through two weeks — a blowout win over Arizona (good!) and a not close loss to Indianapolis (huh?). The defense has been the standout, but that’s also been from forcing a high rate of turnovers — they’re fourth in turnovers forced per drive. That’s probably not going to happen against Aaron Rodgers, one and a half legs or not.PHILADELPHIA (-3.5) over IndianapolisThe Eagles snuck out a 1-1 record with Nick Foles, though that could have easily been 0-2. It’s not just that the returning Carson Wentz is replacing Foles, he’s replacing the worst possible version of Foles. That’s about as big a quarterback upgrade you can get, no matter what you feel about how Wentz will perform in his first game back from his torn ACL.Indianapolis’s defense — 26th in yards allowed per drive — is exactly the unit you’d like to break him in against.MIAMI (-3) over OaklandMiami is one of the most surprising teams of the early season. They have the top defense in the league by DVOA through two weeks thanks to a high turnover rate. That might not help against a risk-averse Derek Carr, but rushing Carr to throw could force some bad decisions. Meanwhile, the Raiders defense can’t stop much of anything Authentic Kerry Wynn Jersey , which is good for an ok Dolphins offense.BALTIMORE (-5.5) over DenverBaltimore is somewhere between the dominant force against Buffalo and the just competitive enough but mistake prone version we saw against Cincinnati. Denver is a 2-0 greatly aided by playing two home games early in the season. Baltimore should be the better team — top-10 in both DVOA and DAVE — and the defense has been fantastic, even when accounting for the Bengals game — first in yards allowed per drive and fourth in points allowed per drive.Cincinnati (+3) over CAROLINAThe Bengals have been on fire lately. The switch to Bill Lazor as offensive coordinator has really helped Andy Dalton work out some of the struggles he typically shows. That could be a factor against a Carolina defense that has been off to a slow start — 22nd in yards allowed per pass attempt. However, the Bengals might need to rely on someone other than A.J. Green since the Panthers have allowed just 42 yards per game to opposing No. 1 wide receivers.JACKSONVILLE (-6.5) over TennesseeThe Jaguars defense is either facing Blaine Gabbert or a less than 100 percent Marcus Mariota. Sometimes picks don’t have to be complicated.Chargers (+7) over RAMSThe Rams have played like the better team coming in, but a touchdown feels like a slight to the Chargers. The team is still seventh in DVOA through two weeks and the offense has been really good. It might not be enough to win, but it could be enough to keep it close.SEATTLE (-1) over DallasWe can say the era of playoff caliber Seahawks teams is over. But it’s still hard to completely write them off. They started with two tough road games, but the defense still played pretty well. They’ll get a not fairly impressive Cowboys offense at home and maybe their first win of the season.Chicago (-5.5) over ARIZONAArizona had a top-5 defense and an offensive scheme that took advantage of its best players then made offseason hires to do the exact opposite of what was done previously. The Cardinals are a mess and borderline unwatchable. Khalil Mack and the rest of the Chicago defense will feast on Sam Bradford for as long as he’s in there, which for the sake of everyone hopefully isn’t long.New England (-7) over DETROITDetroit looks like a mess through two weeks and even though the Patriots haven’t looked dominant at any point — even in the Week 1 win against Houston — the Lions shouldn’t pose much of a threat. Darius Slay, the Lions’ best weapon on defense, hasn’t practiced this week, so that doesn’t help them at all.TAMPA BAY (+1) over PittsburghPick between an unsustainable big-play Buccaneers offense or a Steelers defense that has been susceptible to big plays playing on the road. It might not be time to press the panic button in Pittsburgh, but it’s also difficult to see this defense being the one that stops Tampa Bay’s current roll.Last week: 4-11-1Season: 13-17-2New York Giants final 53-man roster projection: What the Giants might look like Who will make the initial 53-man roster for the New York Giants? We have been making projections on that for months now, even updating them after each preseason game.Well, there are no more preseason games and rosters have to be trimmed from 90 players to 53 by 4 p.m. ET on Saturday. So, here is our final 2018 Giants 53-man roster projection. Let’s see how close I get. I’m putting the over/under on correct selections at 49.OffenseQuarterback (3) — Eli Manning, Davis Webb, Kyle LaulettaNo change.Manning is still the Giants’ guy. Webb is No. 2. Lauletta, like Webb did last season, will spend game days in street clothes unless an injury moves him up the depth chart.Giants-Patriots: Was Kyle Lauletta’s night better than the stats indicated?Running back (4) — Saquon Barkley, Wayne Gallman, Jonathan Stewart, Shane SmithNo change.Robert Martin was impressive in the preseason until an ankle injury derailed him after 3 carries for 11 yards on Thursday. Jhurell Pressley (7 carries, 40 yards, 5.7 yards per carry) and Jalen Simmons (11-41-3.7) have also made strong cases for themselves. One of those guys is going to land on the 10-man practice squad [See full practice squad explainer]. I’m just not sure which one.Tight end (4) — Evan Engram Authentic Alec Ogletree Jersey , Rhett Ellison, Jerell Adams, Scott SimonsonNo change.I have gone back-and-forth on the idea of keeping four tight ends on the roster. Consideringthat the Giants will rely heavily on two-tight end sets this season keeping a fourth tight end on the roster, especially one who is a blocker first, seems like a good idea. Simonson gets the nod over Ryan O’Malley and Garrett Dickerson.Wide receiver (5) — Odell Beckham Jr., Sterling Shepard, Cody Latimer, Russell Shepard, Hunter SharpChange: Sharp in, Kalif Raymond outThe Sharp-Raymond battle really comes down to which guy the Giants prefer as the punt returner. Judging by the fact that Sharp got first opportunities throughout the preseason, he would be guy. Despite his preseason drops, I also think the 5-foot-11, 198-pound Sharp could be more useful as a wide receiver than the 5-9, 160-pound Raymond.Offensive line (9) — Starters: Nate Solder (LT), Will Hernandez (LG), Jon Halapio (C), Patrick Omameh (RG), Ereck Flowers (RT); Reserves: John Greco, Chad Wheeler, John Jerry, Nick BectonChange: Brett Jones traded to Minnesota Vikings, Nick Becton addedBecton left Thursday night’s game with an ankle injury, which complicates this projection somewhat since we have no idea of the severity. I am going to put him on the roster for now Authentic Nate Solder Jersey , giving me two reserve inside players and two reserves tackles. I will admit I cheated a little on this one. Becton is my ninth lineman, and I was sorely tempted to choose veteran guard Chris Scott. Thing is, I think whoever the ninth lineman is will be getting cut no later than after Week 1 vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars. I strongly believe the Giants will be searching the waiver wire for a veteran swing tackle.Sitting in the press box Thursday night, Patricia Traina reminded me that Scott is a vested NFL veteran, meaning that if he is on the initial 53-man roster his salary is guaranteed for the entire season. Becton is not a vested veteran (you need four years experience) and the Giants would be able to cut him without penalty.DefenseDefensive line (6) — Starters: Damon Harrison, Dalvin Tomlinson, B.J. Hill; Reserves: Kerry Wynn, Robert Thomas, A.J. FrancisChange: Avery Moss droppedMoss didn’t really belong with the defensive linemen, anyway. Besides, he played far less than Romeo Okwara and others in the first three preseason games. They have somewhat redundant skills set, but I think both Thomas and Francis make the squad. If the Giants want an additional EDGE player, Okwara would be in and Francis out.Linebackers (8) — Starters: Alec Ogletree, B.J. Goodson, Olivier Vernon, Kareem Martin; Reserves: Lorenzo Carter, Ray-Ray Armstrong, Mark Herzlich, Connor BarwinNo changeI’m sticking with Herzlich over Calvin Munson or undrafted free agent Tae Davis. Every time I try to stick a fork in Herzlich’s Giants career I end up being wrong. If I’m going to be wrong this time, it will be because Herzlich finally actually doesn’t make it.The thing I’m really concerned about here is Barwin’s health, both for this projection and for his ability to contribute. Cornerbacks (6) — Starters: Janoris Jenkins, Eli Apple; Reserves: B.W. Webb, Donte Deayon Youth Eli Manning Jersey , Chris Lewis-Harris, Leonard JohnsonChange: Deayon and Lewis-Harris in, Grant Haley outDeayon pretty much demanded to be kept on the 53-man roster with his monster two-interception night Thursday. Lewis-Harris who got the majority of the early action Thursday. He was active vs. the run and the pass with 6 tackles and 2 passes defenses. Haley is intriguing, but I have reservations about his readiness for the active roster. Practice squad makes sense for him.Johnson could lose this spot if the Giants keep someone like Okwara for the pass rush or one of the young running backs.Safeties (5) — Starters: Landon Collins, Curtis Riley; Reserves: Michael Thomas, William Gay, Andrew AdamsChange: Gay added, Darian Thompson outThompson, the third-year free safety, did not dress again on Thursday due to a lingering hamstring injury. He hasn’t played or practiced since the first preseason game. The guess here is that he’s headed to injured reserve. Unfortunate for him, but it means the Giants won’t have to choose between Gay and Adams for a final safety spot.Special teamsPlacekicker — Aldrick RosasPunter — Riley DixonLong-snapper — Zak DeOssiePractice squad (10 players)RB Robert Martin, C Evan Brown, OL Nick Gates, S Sean Chandler, DL Tyrell Chavis, TE Garrett Dickerson, WR Amba Etta-Tawo, CB Grant Haley, WR Travis Rudolph, LB Tae Davis
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