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16 сентября 2017 г. 09:21

8220Does Bill James Even Like to Watch B

Projecting players is a tough busine s. Due to the natural tendency to disregard risk of harm and reversion to the mean, our instincts bring us to in exce s of project. We view this using the fans who're about 50 % a win high Chris Maragos Jersey (and a full win high projecting players on their favorite time) and who are generous with projected playing time.

So you can easily take a look at projections and think they look low, and so we ought to give people a pa s when they say so. But when they say so and in the proce s disparage the projector, I think its fair game to them out. Here is a video of Bob Ryan and Joe Sullivan discu sing Bill James projections for some Boston Red Sox players (h/t Repoz). Ryan and Sullivan were aghast that Bill James would project Jon Lester just for 14 wins this year, joking that their colleague Dan Shaughne sy would say Bill James doesnt even prefer to watch baseball! which if James actually watched Lester pitch he may think differently. Ryan claimed that Lester is really a 19-game winner for that foreseeable future.

Lester is a great pitcher and won 19 games this past year, but to win 19 or more games all things have to break just right. The pitcher has to pitch lots of innings, achieve this in a relatively high level (or perhaps be astronomically lucky), get good run support, and then po se LeSean McCoy Jersey s a bullpen contain the lead.

Can we predict that all out of Lester in Marcus Smith Jersey 2011? First, lets take a look at projecting innings pitched. He has pitched just over 200 innings in every of history 3 years, which gives us a fast jumping-off point. I looked at all pitchers who averaged between 190 and 210 for three straight years (i.e., had a total of between 570 and 630 IPs during three consecutive years) within the 2000s after which saw the number of innings they'd within the next year. I created 136 pitchers, and they averaged 170 IPs within the next year a great 30-ish innings le s than they'd averaged within the previous 3 years. That's aging and reversion towards the mean. Lester is younger than this group on average so perhaps you can expect him to have a number of than 170 IPs, however that number may well be a safe gue s for how many innings he will throw.

But you may be supremely confident in Lesters talent and sturdine s. Say you're sure he will have over 200 IPs and an ERA under four. How many games should we expect him to win? I discovered 188 pitchers who meet these criteria inside a season since 2001. The number of wins did they average in those seasons? Fifteen. Even pitchers who pitch more than a complete season do Cris Carter Jersey not nece sarily get near 19 wins (the cheapest total was Brandon Webbs 2004 season with only seven wins regardle s of his 208 innings at a 3.59 ERA).

Sure, the Red Sox are a great team and can give Lester way more support compared to 2004 Arizona Diamondbacks did Webb. Byron Marshall Jersey But wins are fickle: Matt Garza won only eight games for the solid 2009 Tampa Bay Rays as he pitched 203 innings with a 3.95 ERA and last year Tommy Hanson won just ten games on a good Atlanta Braves team while pitching 202 innings having a 3.33 ERA.

The point is that you simply cannot a sume that Lester will have another 200-inning season, and even if he is doing, you can't pencil him set for 19 wins (take a look at his 2009 season: 203 innings,a3.41 ERA, and just 15 wins). That is why Bill James, who I am certain loves to watch baseball, projects 14 wins for Lester.

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